Interventional latent dynamics
Forecasting a patient's trajectory under a candidate treatment plan needs two things at once: the patient's own disease dynamics, and how those dynamics change under treatment. ASIDE and its successor iASIDE model these as separate components of a latent ordinary differential equation. Meta-learned encoders read a subject's history and infer the parameters of each component, so the model adapts to every individual without retraining. iASIDE shows that the latent interventional dynamics are identifiable, and gives a separable formulation that reaches the identifiable solution in practice.
Evaluated on tumour growth under chemo- and radiotherapy, MIMIC-III intensive-care data and videos of forced pendulums, with and without time-varying confounding, against established baselines such as the Causal Transformer, CRN and RMSN. The same structure applies to engineered systems driven by control inputs, where each unit behaves slightly differently and has to be modelled from its own history.
- Scientific machine learning
- Neural ODEs
- Meta-learning
- Identifiability
- Variational inference
- Time-varying confounding